This is the correct answer.

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I appreciate the enthusiasm everyone has for to the moon growth of bitcoin. We all want bitcoin to hit $100,000. There is zero technical or fundamental analysis to support bitcoin growing 5x in 2021. And I know that bitcoin has grown that much in 2020, but that's from territory that it's already traded within. To grow 5x more in just 12 months requires a rapid expansion of awareness and adoption that is incredibly unlikely. It's not impossible, almost nothing is impossible, but to say that "the road to $100k is underway" is a factually false. There's nothing to indicate we have that momentum building.

All of the technical analysis from the past indicates that if we do grow to $100,000 it'll happen in 3-4 years. And that's looking at how long it's taken to grow to these levels (logarithmic scales) in the past, incorporating halving milestones as a driver of reduced supply growth. Reduced supply growth is a critically important factor in price growth, alongside the more challenging growth in demand.

I like where things are headed, but let's temper the "we've arrived" talk.