The main problem with your analysis is that you are comparing 2020 to 2017/2013. In a year you should be comparing 2021 to 2017/2013. If you're gonna compare 2020 to a previous year then you should be comparing it to 2016. You're fundamentally missing basic Bitcoin market dynamics if you think 2020 is like previous boom years. 2020 is the "getting back to/near ATH" year, which is what 2016 was. 2020 is by no means a boom year, that only happens once Bitcoin launches off the previous market cycle peak.
I understood your points and you stepped in my shoes. You should know it is not my analysis and I was shocked when people compare 2020 with 2017 and 2013 and such low quality article is published on high traffic site. It is a big joke that is misleading newbies in crypto market.
I do realize the four year cycle of the crypto market (not only for bitcoin). There are many shit altcoins and no matter how high their prices are at all time highs, they are acceptable altcoins if they can survive through at least a 1 four year cycle of the market. I don't say those survivals are good altcoins but they show their development activities, usecases and supports from community. Anyway 4 years are not short and survival through past 4 years does not give you an assurance for another survival next 4 years.
If this was last market cycle Bitcoin would be at like $900 right now and you'd writing about in this post how Bitcoin doesn't have more room to run and how the fledging Ethereum won't contribute to Bitcoin price appreciation. Then you'd miss out on the 20x gains of the following year and the fact that ETH's ICO boom helped Bitcoin's run out immensely by bringing in many more people to the crypto market.
The comparison between Bitcoin and Ethereum is not mine and I emphasized my opinion that comparison is wrong. There is capital flow and it affects capital flow into Bitcoin, altcoins, Ethereum in short period and in the long term growth, Ethereum can not affect bitcoin.
Also the retail frenzy HASN'T EVEN BEGUN yet in this market cycle. The recent price pump is mostly from institutional investors. Grayscale, well known Wall St billionaires, and corporations have been buying up hundreds of thousands of bitcoin the past few months while literally only about 1/100th of that amount has been newly minted BTC during that time. And these are long term investors, not newbie retail traders that are going to panic sell as soon as the price starts dropping - that may be why we only just had a short shallow correction instead of a full blown 30-40% correction this past week because long term investors have been mass buying up the market so the floor is significantly raised now as compared to just 6 months ago when the floor was like $8k/9k. Throw in a little bit of an expanded market from limited Paypal crypto service so far and you can see we are only a month into what may be a year long full-on bull run.
I know about retail investment and how it boosted bitcoin price in 2017. Grayscale and Institutional investments are discussed
Bitcoin Treasuries (data is from
https://bitcointreasuries.org/) and I know that. I believe the market is overheating now and pull back will appear anytime. Any pull back (14% to 30%) will be good dips to load up more bitcoin, not to shake out. Bitcoin is on bullish and parabolic phase.
Thank you for the very informative and astute post.