Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)
I came to $3M / BTC after a quick calculation (roughly $60 Trillion divided by 21 million) while pondering the idea of GBTC buying more BTC daily than mined daily. On the latter: if that's the case and we are truly in a new phase where there is relentless and relatively price agnostic buying on a continued basis above daily coin production, the question is simply:
=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?
I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.
If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.
It is the ultimate marshmallow challenge. Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.
For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property. I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large. And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.
That is where the real crux is, in my opinion. Where that point is for each whale/minnow.