Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Morning rant time 
Firstly and most importantly, you're assuming I don't have a silly hat. I do, I think you might know this too. When the corrections come, I will likely put it back on in support. When the bear market arrives in some years, I will also wear it in solidarity. I've merely put it on a shelf, after a long season wearing my maximalist-style cap I have, I'm more diversified again now.
Secondly, why would I sell if I'm not bearish? This wouldn't make much sense my friend. I also highly doubt I would be able to "double my stash" by selling at $20K, this would mean needing a 50% correction (which I find near impossible, like 5% chance), then buying the exact low of the wick, probably $10,001.01. If only.
Thirdly, I wouldn't be hodling 95% of my wealth in Bitcoin if I believed there there would be a greater than 5% chance of breaking below the 200 Week MA. I said it's time for strong hands, not weak ones. If you invested more than you were willing/able to lose some weeks ago (like I did) - congrats! But now is the time to think about these things again.
Good day to you fellow cap wearer.
Yes, stick to the routine that works. Throw all your money into things deep dips. Don't question it, don't think about it, just btfd. We all know it works, carry on...
I also realise things could be very different, the 25-35% retracement may not happen from here, $25K or even $30K. For me, more of the issue is the lack of consolidation of higher prices, the current macro price swings <$20K have all been very wild compared to the textbook consolidation periods of 2016. If consolidating $14K price last summer for over a year counts as long enough consolidation for this level, then so be it, I'm more "concerned" we may have 3-6 months of price consolidation to come, even if not the deep dip.
Like in summer, many of us (including myself) felt we would correct further from a 150% gain, but we didn't, we just consolidated this price for a couple of months. This is why I'm convinced that this $10K level will be held, without a shadow of a doubt. Re-testing the $14K level however seems very logical, to re-test the year long resistance level that we recently broke through. I'd feel a lot better about the price if we re-tested sooner rather than later.
For all the WO bulls out there, those wearing the silly caps and posting almost exclusively in one thread, here are my current concerns.
I'm not bearish yet, the $17.9K support level still needs to be broken by the bears with confidence and follow through. There's a good chance we bounce from the 21 Day MA again (blue line, bull trend moving average) like we did a few days ago, creating a textbook bullish higher low. But if we don't, and we end up back at $16K, it's not going to be pretty.
I'm still 95% in. Ironically the 3.5% I sold at $18K from the previous break-down I now no longer need due to a tax based administrative error
It does mean that capital is now back in the order books trying to pick up a wick on a low liquidity exchange pair
It's soon time for strong hands. If you need to sell a % or two to make you feel better about a correction that could go as deep as 25-35% ($13-15K), now is the time to think about it.
Then why don't you sell now and buy back at enormous profit. Just imagine...you can double your stash and be able to afford a "SILLY HAT"of your own After a month of price being overbought, we have now confirmed a rejection from returning to overbought levels. While price remains in bullish territory, a break below 55 could see a re-test of bearish price strength:
I'm not bearish yet, the $17.9K support level still needs to be broken by the bears with confidence and follow through. There's a good chance we bounce from the 21 Day MA again (blue line, bull trend moving average) like we did a few days ago, creating a textbook bullish higher low. But if we don't, and we end up back at $16K, it's not going to be pretty.
I'm still 95% in. Ironically the 3.5% I sold at $18K from the previous break-down I now no longer need due to a tax based administrative error
It does mean that capital is now back in the order books trying to pick up a wick on a low liquidity exchange pair
It's soon time for strong hands. If you need to sell a % or two to make you feel better about a correction that could go as deep as 25-35% ($13-15K), now is the time to think about it.
Firstly and most importantly, you're assuming I don't have a silly hat. I do, I think you might know this too. When the corrections come, I will likely put it back on in support. When the bear market arrives in some years, I will also wear it in solidarity. I've merely put it on a shelf, after a long season wearing my maximalist-style cap I have, I'm more diversified again now.
Secondly, why would I sell if I'm not bearish? This wouldn't make much sense my friend. I also highly doubt I would be able to "double my stash" by selling at $20K, this would mean needing a 50% correction (which I find near impossible, like 5% chance), then buying the exact low of the wick, probably $10,001.01. If only.
Thirdly, I wouldn't be hodling 95% of my wealth in Bitcoin if I believed there there would be a greater than 5% chance of breaking below the 200 Week MA. I said it's time for strong hands, not weak ones. If you invested more than you were willing/able to lose some weeks ago (like I did) - congrats! But now is the time to think about these things again.
Good day to you fellow cap wearer.
All I can say is if we do get a massive handle to buy the dip with everything you have. I am of the mind things might be different..a lot of things went right for bitcoin this year. I believe it is going through another order of magnitude adjustment in its adoption phase and this, the halving and the pandemic have all place unique pressure on an already volatile market. Scarcity and the need for a secure portable store of wealth has met demand head on and the results are showing in recent price discovery.
Yes, stick to the routine that works. Throw all your money into things deep dips. Don't question it, don't think about it, just btfd. We all know it works, carry on...
I also realise things could be very different, the 25-35% retracement may not happen from here, $25K or even $30K. For me, more of the issue is the lack of consolidation of higher prices, the current macro price swings <$20K have all been very wild compared to the textbook consolidation periods of 2016. If consolidating $14K price last summer for over a year counts as long enough consolidation for this level, then so be it, I'm more "concerned" we may have 3-6 months of price consolidation to come, even if not the deep dip.
Like in summer, many of us (including myself) felt we would correct further from a 150% gain, but we didn't, we just consolidated this price for a couple of months. This is why I'm convinced that this $10K level will be held, without a shadow of a doubt. Re-testing the $14K level however seems very logical, to re-test the year long resistance level that we recently broke through. I'd feel a lot better about the price if we re-tested sooner rather than later.