Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 04/12/2020, 18:24:55 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come.


I don't think that you understanding this thesis correctly.
We are at approximately 10x hashing since Dec 2017 while the price is roughly the SAME. Phil posted about this numerous times.
Miner's efficiently increased only about 2X, maybe even less during the same time frame.
Even now, mining is not very profitable at lower electricity cost.
The rise in hashing power is inescapable since miners production is mostly sold out until next summer.
After we are at $100-200K, then, maybe we can talk about slower growth.
The cost of miners themselves have to be amortized as well, but it is obvious.