Re: Give me your predictions for the next long term peak, and why.
Based on previous cycles, 200-300k, topping out between September-October 2021, followed by the bear market 40-60k bottom within two years, rinse and repeat until the cycle breaks. All the historic information is available for anyone to look up and extrapolate for themselves.
Topping out in the fall? If 2011, 2013, and 2017 are indicators, that's unlikely. Those bubbles popped in June, December, and December respectively. The latter two cycles topping out in December lends some credence to the theory that tax year implications (and associated profit taking) may play a role.
Then again, if everyone is planning on the top coming in December, it'll probably happen sooner. So you may be onto something.
