Remember the time when Mercedes had Rosberg and Hamilton's engineers switched? And Rosberg started to win races and eventually won the driver's championship?
I don't think that had much if any effect. Rosberg won in 2016 partly through Hamilton's bad luck, and partly through Hamilton's complacency in thinking he would always beat Rosberg. Whilst the reliability problems suffered by Hamilton did cost him the championship (he lost by 5 points), Hamilton did also (metaphorically) take his foot off the gas a little (as well as being uncharacteristically weak on races starts) and Rosberg took full advantage. The final few races of the 2016 season are where I think we see the emergence of the Hamilton we see now, the relentless ultra-consistent winning machine, and it was Rosberg who forced him to raise his game to this new level. I think at the end of the season Rosberg knew he'd been lucky as well as right on the edge for the whole season, and decided to retire at the top rather than face the prospect of continuing to race and never beating Hamilton to the championship again.
I guess... But Merc's decision of the switching of engineers back and forth was a little sketchy imho. And 5 points is enough to prove that engineers do play a part.
Anyway, it's Merc 1 - 2 with Bottas in pole position. Put Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, maybe Ricciardo, maybe Raikonnen, maybe Perez, maaaybe even Norris in that Merc, he'll get pole.