Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
The dynamics are currently interesting, and not like what we have seen in the past. I am going to speculate what might be happening under the hood at this time.
-The retail exchange volumes are up, but not much yet.
-At the same time we are becoming aware of a likely large increase in OTC market volumes. Does anyone have access to ANY of the OTC trading desk volumes?
I speculate that the OTC market is most likely fairly lit up. And if I was a player with big money I would do the following: I would make large purchases on the OTC markets as often as I could, and I would be strategically market dumping portions of these purchases on the retail platforms to suppress retail price, and therefore also control the OTC price since I would imagine it is connected.
Done well this could create a stable price at which to load up as much OTC bitcoin as I possibly could.
If this is being done, then it is going to multiply the fuel in the eventual rocket by bottling up all the momentum that the OTC purchases were not making in real time. Effectively it is hedging big purchases with a short on the retail platforms. It ends up being levered to a degree by the fact that retail volumes (at least for trade sizes) are smaller and it would not take much to move, or suppress the market.
Even if that strategy is just a paranoid fantasy, the rest about the retail and OTC markets is true without a doubt. And even if the big players are not manipulating the whole market by the retail shops, then we will STILL see the eventual intersection of demand with supply in a magnitude never seen before. But the fuse is lit. And the smart money can see this (MSTR LOL). Don;t you think they are going to do everything in their power to delay the inevitable?
And by my back of the napkin calculations there is no way for this particular market to sustain it's current course for very much longer. Eventually the early whales will be done selling. I wonder what Chamath is doing. I think he is too smart to sell much. On other other hand he's definitely in the green on his purchase.
Personally I think a drop to 14k is not very likely unless it is purposefully dumped there by the biggest players. And though the motivation to do so is outlined as well as I can above, I just do not think that strategy is going to be able to last much longer. The only thing that scares me are the big Central Banks and their pet governments. They will have an incentive to use regulatory powers to crush the market while they do their late accumulation, and then "come around" loosening those regs once they have loaded up.
Interesting times.
-The retail exchange volumes are up, but not much yet.
-At the same time we are becoming aware of a likely large increase in OTC market volumes. Does anyone have access to ANY of the OTC trading desk volumes?
I speculate that the OTC market is most likely fairly lit up. And if I was a player with big money I would do the following: I would make large purchases on the OTC markets as often as I could, and I would be strategically market dumping portions of these purchases on the retail platforms to suppress retail price, and therefore also control the OTC price since I would imagine it is connected.
Done well this could create a stable price at which to load up as much OTC bitcoin as I possibly could.
If this is being done, then it is going to multiply the fuel in the eventual rocket by bottling up all the momentum that the OTC purchases were not making in real time. Effectively it is hedging big purchases with a short on the retail platforms. It ends up being levered to a degree by the fact that retail volumes (at least for trade sizes) are smaller and it would not take much to move, or suppress the market.
Even if that strategy is just a paranoid fantasy, the rest about the retail and OTC markets is true without a doubt. And even if the big players are not manipulating the whole market by the retail shops, then we will STILL see the eventual intersection of demand with supply in a magnitude never seen before. But the fuse is lit. And the smart money can see this (MSTR LOL). Don;t you think they are going to do everything in their power to delay the inevitable?
And by my back of the napkin calculations there is no way for this particular market to sustain it's current course for very much longer. Eventually the early whales will be done selling. I wonder what Chamath is doing. I think he is too smart to sell much. On other other hand he's definitely in the green on his purchase.
Personally I think a drop to 14k is not very likely unless it is purposefully dumped there by the biggest players. And though the motivation to do so is outlined as well as I can above, I just do not think that strategy is going to be able to last much longer. The only thing that scares me are the big Central Banks and their pet governments. They will have an incentive to use regulatory powers to crush the market while they do their late accumulation, and then "come around" loosening those regs once they have loaded up.
Interesting times.
Actually, this idea came to me last week, but i wasn't focused enough to write it down in a transparent, logical way.
I deleted the draft after the second attempt. Blame it on the weed
Anyway, when bitcoin count in circulation decreases far enough, the OTC's will likely follow the shooting retail price, and fomo surge will probably eat up huge sell-offs just like that. Also, if regulation continues, these kind of market manipulations will go bust and therefore vanish sooner or later.
This scenario is pretty much a given, IMO.
IIRC Saylor had his bought on exchange. Coinbase and others will handle the bids for your firm, and according to them, they have been doing so at below average price, and without moving the market. That just means it will move all at once, later
