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This is my opinion pretty much just the same as yours.
Our main discrepancy is the projected top of the coming bubble.
You call for only 5 digits. I see over a quarter million before the big correction.
I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Though I think it's likely we will have the biggest correction ever as measured in USD, I think it is also likely we will have the smallest correction as measure in %.
If we do get to your 250k, I would imagine in the WORST case scenario we would drop again to 80k. But I would bet on even less of a drop... 150 maybe.
On the other hand I 3D printed my crystal ball out of glow in the dark filament. I have no idea how accurate it really is.