I would say 1% likely cause you don't know what you don't know. But generally there's clear evidence the guy wanted to be anonymous and you don't use your real name if that's your goal.
Where is the clear evidence that he wanted to remain anonymous? So many people say "he always used tor." Where is the evidence that he always used tor?
Could this perhaps be a Satoshi myth that has been spread around the forums? Sort of like an el chapo situation, forum hearsay that added to his legendary mythical status. "He always used tor and 7 proxies and never posted personal details, he can never be caught!"
I think he probably used his real name because he already felt anonymous posting on obscure mailing lists and forums that only a handful of people read at the time.
Same reason Ulbricht posted his personal gmail. It was an obscure internet forum that hardly anyone frequented back then.
There's no way Satoshi could have predicted that Bitcoin would turn into a global phenomenon that would make Satoshi Nakamoto a household name and send reporters swarming to his door.