Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
stylin
on 08/03/2014, 07:35:14 UTC
Specially if you draw the chart with 70 different possibilities so you can claim being right if any of those 70 come true.

Charts can help, things like Fibs are useful tools. I like double tops and bottoms too. But in Bitcoin - news, sentiment, whales and lack of common sense by loads of amateur traders beat ass of any chart on the world.

I mostly don't know shit about charts. Yet made 2000$ today. How? Just using common sense to see that sentiment was it's going down and then watching market closely to see when it could be bottom for that mini trend to enter the trade. And then doing the opposite on up move (though I usually do it bit too early in this part when I just swing trade). Nothing fancy but very profitable.


The thing about TA is that it is the only holistic account of the market. News and sentiment provide one angle, but they are not "complete" (I don't know how else to describe it, English is my second language.) TA draws on aggregate supply and demand which is a "complete" statement of the market. The price is ALWAYS correct. You feel me? I always hear people trying to guess when the whales that "pumped yesterday" are going to dump, honestly trading on assumptions like these will put you at a disadvantage IMO. A price rise could be caused by many things: a single whale getting in short term (which is what people ALWAYS attribute price rises to), but also whales getting in mid-to-long term (and why not squeeze shorts and create a pump while they're at it?), institutional buying, druglords who simply want to transfer their fiat into bitcoin, Chinese government officials who will never cash out (doing so would leave traces of bribery), etc etc etc. Same goes for dumps. The point is we will never know the motivations behind rise and fall. We can only look at the charts.