What if I get greedy and I'm like nah I'm not selling anything under $100k, and I try to sell or start selling above $100k, and it peaks just under that and I have to wait several years to actually get money out cuz then I don't want to sell while it's crashing.
There's no right answer.
At least you can take comfort in the fact that you won't be buying anywhere near the top, nor selling anywhere near the bottom. You're way ahead of the curve. So what if you need to wait a few more years to realize ridiculous exponential gains?
This makes me think, sort of in line with your post above, that I should only sell maybe like 50% or something of my bitcoin stash around $100k. That way if it goes wayyy higher I can sell some way higher (the point you are making), but also if the crash is far shallower than we have come to expect I'm not just sitting 100% in cash waiting for the price to keep dropping when it isn't actually going to drop as low as I think and I end up buying back quite high.
Yeah. I'm way too scared to sell all my coins at one price. In fact, I'm scared to ever sell all my coins, period. I only ever sell percentages of my total stash because I need to hedge against the possibility that BTC goes way higher (or doesn't crash as hard) as we expect.
That's a pretty good strategy. Like after the 2017 peak, at least on Coinbase, I dunno about other exchanges, it dropped all the way to $10,000s, then came back to $16k or $17k a couple times afterwards in the ensuing bounces. Problem still remains you don't know how much it's going to bounce, but yeah it protects from selling wayyyy too early in a bull market. If I still have some coin left after the crash begins I would likely try to do this and hit a bounce.
Yep, that 50% crash over a few days in mid-December (reversing all the parabolic gains from earlier in the month), on epic volume, was a strong sign of a bubble pop. If you sold the subsequent ~70% bounce to the $17,000s you'd have made out like a bandit.
We can't know how much it's going to bounce exactly, but I would bet hard on the 61.8%-78.6% Fib retracement area. Very reliable. We call the middle of that range (the 70.5%) the OTE ("Optimal trade entry") level, which is almost exactly where price reversed in January 2018.