So it isn't as bad I thought it would be, even though 6% is a lot and hardly unlikely, we still have Samsung that supplies MicroBT with it's 8nm chips, they don't get a huge portion of it but still.


I mentioned this before, I thought they could back to the 16nm chips which should be more available than the 7nm, but then when I think about it, it might not make sense, you see timing is everything, while BTC has a potential of going past 100k for this bull run, chances are it won't remain above it for long enough, so those crazy times of plugging an S9 on a 10cent per Khw yields profit won't last for more than 2-3 months,  by the time Bitmain is done with its 7nm orders from T19 to S19 pro, it will be too late.

Mining gear makers have another problem, every gear they make today brings the value of the next gear they make tomorrow down, this theory is 100% accurate unless someone thinks that price can keep going up forever without going into years of bear markets.

Looking at the profitability chart, it's has been forever in a downtrend, even with prices at 40k now it was more profitable to mine back in June 2019 when the price was at about 10k, so in the long run, the difficulty goes up more than the price does, yes price goes up a lot faster, but difficulty goes up slow and steady and it doesn't do a 70% drop every other year, so we can safely ignore the price factor in the long run and rest assured that difficulty is only going to go up, which makes mining bitcoin more difficult, each gear makes less bitcoin and thus worth less the further we move.

I also think that these manufacturers are well aware of the market cycles and that their sales will only be hot when there is a massive bull market like the one we have now, so I doubt that they will push their production capacity a lot further since eventually, there will be times where bitmain mining gears are spot orders with next day delivery, listed for very cheap and nobody wants to buy them.