I don't think we go that high 250k and I doubt we will even touch 100k on this bull run. I think 50k more likely but yes if we were to hit 250k then a drop to 7k-10k would be too much. I think we will not go further than 50k on this bull run but definitely will surpass that by large on next one.
I like your assessment, it's more realistic like all the others, we must not rule out the possibility of correction at more than 50% or a crash at 80% it's likely to happen, because we are in the first month of the year, we can only speculate and look at the past history of the market, I just hope this year will be different from all the past years.