lol


oh windy, always with the ulterior motive! the thread is plainly my speculation on price action If you follow from the start it was calling the top, then it was projecting what the bottom might be if it followed the same cycle as MtGox. Obviously its been a while since then given it was a 2 year prediction and a lot has happened - any mention of BSV is just me being honest about my thoughts - I don't *think* I have recommended anyone buy it for price appreciation purposes.

It's clear by now that I am wrong in my prediction, even if by some miracle BTC went to 2k in feb *I WOULD STILL BE WRONG* because it would go there because of some - as JJG puts it - black swan type event. Not because it replayed the cycle after gox, which as you will recall was the thesis behind my prediction.

You can all ascribe motives for that but not once in the history of bitcoin talk have I ever not been honest about what I think will happen - especially in such a way that would be intended to deceive anyone into doing something. So that line af argument gets a tiresome, regardless I fully expect people to keep beating that dead horse. Dogmatic thinking will get you in trouble, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but in time. Those that have taken me at face value, thank you for your respect.

In summary:

- top called give or take suggested $3700 bottom
- revised bottom call to $4100
- relentless mockery all the way down to sub 4k, whoops!
- more detailed extrapolation of bottom based on first bounce and gox history suggesting the $2483 target
- 2 years of that pattern holding
- finally I acknowledge pattern is breaking down

What I did not predict was the extent to which tether would start printing USDT, which I suspect is probably a primary driver in this run. I think without that then price discovery would have played out as predicted and now would be the time to buy in for the next run (with the caveat that I doubt there would be one, given BTC utility is shot now compared to BSV and indeed all those damn alts that have profited so handsomely from core's butchering of the Bitcoin protocol).

Anyway I feel like trying to predict anything at the moment is a lottery with so many court cases up in the air and such tomfoolery in the market place where we go now is anyone's guess, so let's do it - guess the price on 19th Feb. I already chose $2483 so looks like I am going to be the furthest away

What do you all think? I'll collate guesses in this post. Deadline is 31st Jan 23:59:59 UTC

$2483

sgbett