On the flip side how shitty would it feel to dissuade someone from buying at say 12K or the last bottom...
Really shitty, and I have an experience to back up how actually shitty it is: When Btc touched 20k few weeks back, I was contacted by a friend for advice if he should buy or not, of course I tried as much as possible to play safe with my advice, leaving the ultimate decision in his hands, though, that in one way or another discouraged him from buying cause he weighed up what could happen if the cons instead of the pros was what was going to happen...
Moving on from then to Bitcoin reaching 41k, my friend talks to me like I let him miss out on huge ROI, forgetting that the reverse could also have been the case, I don't feel bad for not categorically telling him to buy, but I feel bad cause he doesn't believe in the network, many people are like that, they've been hearing of Bitcoin, even when it was 9k, but it only piques their interest, causing them FOMO when there is a Bull run and the price is appreciating like it is now, it's more difficult advising such people imo.