Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Can BTC go down to <$5k again now?
by
buwaytress
on 13/01/2021, 07:53:45 UTC
Buying at $5K sounds nice while the market is trading at $33K, but if it really went there, it means something is very, very wrong. I doubt I'd be loading up. Going down with the ship maybe, but not loading up.

That would be the steepest decline since the 2011 bubble pop, which occurred after much, much larger gains than the current run. Losses like that should not occur unless there are serious existential threats to Bitcoin that shake investor confidence significantly more than it was shaken in 2018 or 2014. Anything is possible, but Wall Street's entry into the market indicates the exact opposite. Bitcoin is becoming less risky, less speculative, and increasingly less likely to simply crash to $0.

That's what the market is saying. So in all likelihood, any crash would be absorbed long before $5K. As I've said elsewhere, I think $24K is the maximum downside, whether from here or in the next bear market. And that number will continue rising as BTC continues making new ATHs.

Fair enough. I did say nothing is impossible, but yeah, if we "crash" down to $5000, it should be momentary and it will have to take something or many things converging -- not necessarily something very wrong with the underlying asset, could still be a lot of external factors. Take 2020's negative prices for oil, for example. A temporary glut in supply and inability to transport it, or even use it up with industries shutting down. Hard to see that happening to Bitcoin, but I still won't rule anything crazy happening, something of a given with crypto.

$24k max downside? That's me nodding hard.