In my view, technicals tell everything about a market, and that sort of price action (crashing 88% to $5K
at this point in a bull market) would indicate the market has largely lost faith in Bitcoin,
to a degree not seen since 2011. That's totally at odds with the idea that Bitcoin becomes less risky as the price rises.
We've got to consider how much supply has been sucked off the market in 2020, and what it would take to immediately bring it all back. It would have to be something truly threatening to Bitcoin's long term value proposition.
How do you reconcile that with the drop to 1/4 of the price in the first four months of 2018? Was there a similar existential threat to BTC then too?
No. See the bolded phrase for emphasis.
That crash took place after magnitudes larger gains than those realized in this bull run. BTC broke the 2013 highs in January 2017. The bubble lasted a year. By December 2017, BTC had extended 16x above those 2013 highs.
In this case, the 2017 highs were only broken 1 month ago, and BTC has extended a mere
2x above the 2017 high. That's 1 year vs. 1 month and 16x vs. 2x. You're really expecting an 80%+ bear market crash already?
For this bubble to pop so much quicker than previous bubbles, and for the subsequent crash to also be so much harder than previous crashes.....that would indicate to me that
something is different this time. That's all I'm saying.