Re: How low will BTC go before the next leg up to 45-50k??
The correction is over now. It bottomed at $30k. News of a company getting a US charter for digital currencies today plus Grayscale starting to buy again on Tuesday quickly ended the consolidation period of the correction after the drop to $30k. Bitcoin will never go below $30k now.
Never again? So sure already? We're only at $38K.
This is right smack in the middle of the OTE short zone (the 0.618-0.786 Fib retracement). In June 2017, a BTC bull trap reversed in this zone before the market completed a second leg down, crashing 40-41% total from top to bottom.
We'll only know the bottom is in in hindsight. In my opinion, not enough time or price action has passed. I'd say there is still a decent chance of sub-$30K.
We'll see
I feel very confident $30k is gone for good. In bull markets later corrections don't go lower than earlier corrections.
I follow market dynamics over technicals. Market dynamics say massive supply crunch, institutional investors eagerly bought the dip and they have way more money than panic selling retails investors. The first US chartered digital bank today was apparently major news as well long term bullish for Bitcoin so on either side of the market its making people buy, plus Grayscale apparently just started buying again on Tuesday, which I have been saying the past few weeks as soon as Grayscale starts buying again any ongoing correction that happens is effectively over at these price levels.
I don't think we'll see another solid 20%+ correction until at least $50k, at which point it'd have to be 40% to go under $30k. Institutions strongly bought up this correction, and now Grayscale is back buying for the next 5-6 months which makes any sustained correction even that much harder. Unless the price action the past 24 hours was a giant bull trap and this is a double dip correction that we're still in the middle of (I don't think there's any way that is the case) then no I don't see $30k again. Next correction could be something like $50k down to $38k, don't think it'll be anywhere near $30k.
2017 was retail investor driven where people panic. The past few days a bunch of retail held bitcoin got panic sold and just got quickly bought up by long term institutions, constricting the supply even more. The weak hands have even less supply to drop now than when they just panic sold to $30k. Sure if this was still only retail driven I'd say $30k is absolutely still on the table for a double dip. But with institutions buying up maybe half a billion or more $ per week it's just not going to happen.
If we're going by 2017 standards then a dip close to $20k would be on the table, but times are different. With a whole new class of investor with far more money than the old class of investor eager to buy bitcoin at any current price because they're just now getting into the game so these are basement bottom prices for them. And for the most part they are buying long term. Nah, we had one shot to return to $30k, just missed going under, institutions loaded up and price isn't going back down there again. The floor is now $30k.