This cycle is going to be a super cycle, I think $100,000 is conservative for the top to be honest. It’s going to be like an absolute avalanche of money flowing into bitcoin once true FOMO starts.
Yes agree about the super cycle. $100k or a bit higher might be a temporary top sometime later this year. If we're at the start of a super cycle I think it'll last several years and be broken up into a few parts, with several month corrections between each part. Participants in the market will need time to feel like things aren't going up too fast, which is the whole point of corrections - at some point participants get scared and the price needs to cool off for participants to feel like it's safe for it to keep going up. It might go over $100k then go back to $60k-$80k for a few months this year before moving up further. $100k is I think very conservative for the top before another major long term bear market, but I don't think it's terribly conservative for the near future. If this is a super cycle $100k is a decent 2021 prediction (granted it'll probably go at least a bit higher than that this year) but I could easily see any bear market lasting longer than a handful of months being several years away and $100k long gone by the time we get to it. If institutions pile in gradually for the next 3-5 years for example, allowing any long bear market to occur, the price could easily be $500k before we see any long term bear market.
Or probably broken into 2 part 3 years cycle, or maybe one big super fast rally - 6 year cycle. And the narrative of bitcoin changes, I don't think that the 4 year cycle will hold through. Speculations points to 6 digits mark at the end of 2021 and then another 3 year cycle taht can balloon the price as high as $300k or even more. Just imagine though, seeing bitcoin at $200k and them a 50% dip after at $100k, and saying bitcoin has failed, Lol, that will be epic.
Yeah I think institutions getting in will kill the four year cycle now. Four year cycle worked like clockwork when halvings led to supply constraints which led to price going back to ATH which lead to retail frenzy which led to bubble which led to crash, and repeat. But now that institutions are getting in, and this will likely continue for years as they build their positions and more and more join as the more conservative ones get comfortable with Bitcoin as it continues to grow, there just is not going to be any longer term bear market. Don't know how exactly a supercycle will play out, but yeah I imagine what we are seeing now is the start of a multi-year bull market that completely disregards the 4 year cycle which should be ending late this year.