Over the years I have noticed that most alt season started as follows:
1. $BTC pumps first.
2. $ETH $BET & $LTC coin pumps next, leading indicators of the Alt season.
3. Big marketcap tokens next. Usually top 20 on CMC.
4. Then full blown Alt season.
So according to your formula btc will first hit 200 to 300k then eth will hit 10 to 15k only then alt season will start, yes this pattern has played out in the past but may be all market will move this time who knows.