My two cents: I have a feeling that whatever happens during this vote on the 16th, even if it's in Russia's favor they'll fudge the numbers so that it stays part of Ukraine and that'll be Russia's out. Russia gets brownie points for 'calming the situation' and showing the people protesting/revolting that they have no business trying to start a revolution. But it could just as easily go the other way and I'm totally wrong, only time will tell.