Operation Twist. A maneuver designed to keep debt payments low, but it locks in a longer range of debt, putting the problem off yet again (hopefully).
i'm interested in your thoughts on yesterdays UST sale by Ben. was this part of OpTw since he was selling short term bonds the proceeds of which will be invested in longer term UST's? what perverse effects on the markets do you think this will have?
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Gold is money, not real estate. The participation rate in gold is still marginal as compared to its market size as a whole. This is the opposite of a saturated market as real estate was in the mid-2000s.
you've said its money, an asset, and a real asset over the life of this thread. i see differences in each of those categories which i've said all along is the cornerstone problem with how you look at gold. which is it?
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glad you brought this up. a more sophisticated analysis of the volume show an increasing volume on the days of selloffs. this means there are more interested sellers.
I'm sure you won't mind sharing the methodology for this "more sophisticated" analysis.
no more sophisticated than yours. go back and check out both daily gold and silver charts. on the down days the volume spikes are higher than on up days. that means more sellers than buyers in aggregate helping to drive the price down.
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Perhaps there was a misunderstanding as to what I mean by declining volume. The following two charts are for gold and silver. Data is from Kitco for the PM London price fix; open interest and volume numbers are from CME Group's data. Percentage differences in movement were calculated from each day versus the prior day's numbers. It is evident that the volume for the selected duration peaked on 09/23 for silver and 09/26 for gold. Since then, daily volume has been falling with price remaining range-bound. The spike on 10/04 was the near-$100 and $2.50 hit gold and silver took.
The red lines for open interest are of particular interest. They should've declined sharply along with the prices, but didn't. Instead, they have only continued a gradual descent - in silver's case, it has even begun to rise again.
The arrow shows the declining volume with the price drop. Remember that all data points are relative to the origin, not absolutes.
those are helpful graphs. just another way to look at the price charts i use that have volume and OI at the bottom. yours have a bit more interesting info that is useful.
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you've got to stop dissing the "price". after all, how do you measure your wins vs losses? certainly not by volume. this is a classic excuse when fighting the tape. its for amateurs. i believe the price action is setting up for the next leg DOWN. silver 2nd leg down recently is telling you what gold is going to do very soon.
Ok, gangsta dictator.
I'm pointing out that reliance on price charts and the patterns formed from them alone is folly. Bear trap setups in gold and silver are in place and their trigger is imminent. Refusal to incorporate data beyond the price is akin to judging a book by its cover.
The tenuous connections being applied to market sectors are misinterpreting the interplay between volume, open interest and price. This dynamic is critical to grasp, in combination with supply and demand in the precious metals industry itself. Things are not so complex as the financial wizards have made them seem, even though their deceit and trickery are.
i never said "only" look at price. other pieces of info are helpful of course but i still think price is paramount. as an example: the entire stock mkt rally from 3/09 ws a low volume rally with higher volume spikes on selloff days. if you were short and refused to follow price vs volume, you got killed. this was the greatest rally since 1932; a doubling in price for massive gains. i've learned over the years not to fight the tape as long as several confirmatory factors line up as you're suggesting. real investing means taking all available info into acct both technical and fundamental.
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Deflation will trigger additional defaults. Assuming there will be nothing done, it is reasonable to expect increasing social turmoil and a self-reinforcing downward spiral of declining business activity. That outcome is bad for everyone. Government's entire purpose is to protect its constituents. If government does nothing, it receives the brunt of backlash.
The chances of inactivity are negligible. Reductio ad absurdum. Pain avoidance is the simplest path, except for masochists.
The chances of inactivity are negligible. Reductio ad absurdum. Pain avoidance is the simplest path, except for masochists.
i've always said this is possible.
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How does this equation not apply?
(Decreasing Supply) + (Rising Demand) == (Rising Prices)
just be sure to take into acct Ponzi Dynamics. Foss is right; theres no way a price chart can crash so quickly in so short a time unless these dynamics are in place.
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What data other than price chart patterns implies a continued decline in the precious metals? Not to exclude the possibility of another sharp drop, but there hasn't been anything else offered which points to gold and silver going down for the count. Instead, there's ample evidence that the PMs are due to rise very powerfully.
this is where data can't help you. sure the data looks good and lines up for your case and this is where i think my housing analogy of lines of buyers can be helpful. at some point you have to resort to your underlying thesis: is gold money or just another asset, ie, tail of the USD dog? what is the role of Bitcoin here longterm? this is where we can agree to disagree.
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The big issue is that most of the ideas put forth have been based on price charts and patterns without much solid explanation behind the analysis. My position is such that the remaining days of summer in the northern hemisphere are meant to be spent outside rather than running numbers.
come on now. all you've put forward is a slew of Comex data backed by tomes of bullish interpretation. i could argue you have tunnel vision in regards to the gold data w/o a worldwide view. the price charts are important and i've backed my interpretation up with a slew of general economic data into which gold interplays.
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those 69% of Americans (peak housing participation rate) that bought anywhere btwn 1999 or so and 2007 are screwed into the biggest debt instrument of their lives. they won't be coming to the gold or HI party.
And that precludes upward gold revaluation how?
didn't you say several times that the once the avg Joe comes to the party the price will skyrocket?
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my cycle work forced me to take profits on my pm shorts this am. i think we get a relatively large stock bounce here with the pm's.
we may be in for a multi month run up before the final fall. this is golds last chance to clear its previous highs. lets see if it can get there.
Ok... why?
b/c Iseree said so.
