~snip
That's true, because in the market everything changes, anytime. Unless there is enough instrument that can tell if the movement of a coin is really positive or not. All you have to do is be prepared for whatever the outcome may be.
The only instrument that you could use is probably trading charts but we all know that there's no 100% probability for that one. We cannot expect to have any influence no matter what we do to predict it. What changes is the probability to have the correct decision at the right time. There are always going to be different times where you were correct that one time and wrong on the other. But when it turns out that you were correct the first time, it wasn't at the right time. There's always going to be unpredictability so we are obliged to be managing our risk and capital for that.