I wish I could agree to that  , but unfortunately winning profitability isn't that simple, in his example, he showed how a 70GH gear has 1 in 14,000,000 chance a day, that chance of that very same miner per block would be 14,000,000*144 = 1 in 15,000,000,000, the chance per week would be 14,000,000 / 7= 1 in 2,000,000, the number of trails is irrelevant in this comparison IMO, it's a little bit more complicated than this, probability and statistics are as complicated as women are.