The bio change is more relavent because it was minutes apart when the pump happened. This is basically equilvant to the Xi pump back in 2019 however I don't like how the entire pump pretty much retraced. This points to signs of a weak bull market.
This is similar to what happened in Oct 2019 with the Xi pump, it was the largest candle in BTC history however price eventually engulfed the entire move and went lower. And we were trading sideways more months and that $10K resistance was tested twice before it finally broke.
So hopefully we start to go back up from $33.4K area or we will most likely go back down to $30K and this time it will break and we will be in the mid $20k's. I am getting a little bearish at this price action.
Like you, am expecting some blood some time soon. The sub 30k tests we've had already have really been weak ass.
I'm also leaning bearish myself. Full retrace from $38K and failure to retake the technically significant $35K level....those are typical bearish signs. To boot, we never saw a high volume capitulation in the $20Ks. Like you said, just weak ass tests. The market may need to truly flush out top longs and weak hands before the bull market can continue. There just isn't excess demand at these price levels, not right now.