Well I found this about general market dynamics and the cycle... What's interesting is if we overlay against BTC price 2018, and then again on current situation...
https://imgur.com/a/6gQMQ6K2018 situation - whilst we didn't "capitulate" completely to failure, we did return to the mean line (black line) over the proceeding 4-6 months.
In a generally bullish market like BTC perhaps this makes sense... We didn't completely fail, but the cycle still determined the price over medium term.
In 2021, we can see a similar second uptick - of course only time will tell where it goes from here, but you wouldn't be crazy to perhaps expect to see a similar pattern transpiring.
With the argument about whales and institutional investors - well we're at the mercy of when they take profits and dump on market, but also they're not stupid to not see that a fall in price on a cyclical market dynamic would mean the opportunity to buy again at lower prices and accumulate more profit.
Based on the return to mean line, seeing $10k isn't crazy...
2018 Movements
https://imgur.com/1LgKF5l2021 Movements
https://imgur.com/b6cwzz1