Normally these types of promotions try to build customer loyalty by giving them supposed benefits that often are not such. I am not saying that this is specifically so in this case or not, I leave the mathematics to you and others, because as I said above I am not a gambler.

I think that the success of the promotion will depend a lot on how the price of the token evolves, which, btw, has cooled off quite a bit after the initial jump.