If the fee for Pay Per Share (PPS) Method is 7.5%, is it correct that if the pool's luck (hypothetically) ran at 92.5% forever, than the PPS method would break even? Asked another way, if a miner is using PPS, and the pool luck is below 92.5% for an very extended period, would the miner make more than if he was using PPLNS, for the same extended time period?
100% Luck = 97-98% payout after pool fee (orphaned blocks make it hard to say which one). So technically if luck is under 95% or so, that's when PPS would have paid better (although NMC adds a little, so maybe 94%). You'll notice the pool luck has never been that low for any reasonable length of time. Trying to hop between them isn't possible, so while you might try to hop PPLNS/PPS and get it right some times, the odds say PPLNS will win most of the time. Thinking you can guess when to change and "beat the system" is akin to thinking you can beat the casino at its own game.