The last days I am trying with some "home made" Excels to calculate the profitability of Cloud Mining vs Asic Mining for the BTC.
I am interested to see if it makes sense some offers that I have received for the first or the second scenario.
Difficulty however is the big unknown factor and it troubles me, how I should calculate it and what can be the worst case scenario about it.
To be able to calculate my difficulty scenarios, I have take as reference the difficulty for the previous 2 year and copy paste it so I can have a valid case.

The point that I would like some help are:
1) Do you believe that the above way is a proper way to calculate the difficulty? I have taken 2 years reference since the cloud contacts are for 2 years, and I believe also that after 2 years the Asics if I buy them will not have any sense to mine with them.
2) What is the worst case scenario that I should price in?
3) I know that all the Asic manufacturers are sold out until September - October next year. How this will affect difficulty? Do we know the capacity they have?


This thread I think is the right one to ask. I have read the terms of NotFuzzyFarm and I think it is ok. In case there is a need to delete it or relocate it just let me know.