Feb 2020 to Feb 2021
15.5T to 21.4T = 38.06%
Keep in mind that the last year had the halving event, so the easiest thing to assume here would be doubling that increment, so it's more like 76% rather than 36%, I believe with a very high probability that the trend of difficulty will keep rising regardless of price, but will rise a lot slower than it used to.
It can't do 114% like 2018, can't do 158% like 2019, and can't do 76% like 2020, so maybe 50%? this will take us from 21.4T to maybe 32T, 50% of the current hashrate is about 80EH, each 1EH is 10,000 S19 pro, so 80EH is 800,000 S19/S19 pro, just about a million mining gears, I would be very surprised if we could go beyond that.
Taking the 1/2ing into account would make 2020-2021 15.5T to 42.8T = 176%
In the 1st quarter of 2019, Bitmain had a revenue of >$1 billion. At $2500 a miner, that would be 400,000 miners in a single quarter. So between all the manufacturers, I don't think it is that far-fetched to think we're going to hit another 100% increase.
Thank for your reply. Logical what you say.
As I understand to make a "safe" bet I will calculate the following 3 scenarios:
1) No mining difficulty increase for the next 2 years.
2) 50% increase for the next year and 60% for the next one.
3) 100% increase for the next year and 100% for the next one.
Does this sound logical?
I understand that this I very generic way to do it with many assumptions.