Feb 2020 to Feb 2021
15.5T to 21.4T = 38.06%
Keep in mind that the last year had the halving event, so the easiest thing to assume here would be doubling that increment, so it's more like 76% rather than 36%, I believe with a very high probability that the trend of difficulty will keep rising regardless of price, but will rise a lot slower than it used to.
It can't do 114% like 2018, can't do 158% like 2019, and can't do 76% like 2020, so maybe 50%? this will take us from 21.4T to maybe 32T, 50% of the current hashrate is about 80EH, each 1EH is 10,000 S19 pro, so 80EH is 800,000 S19/S19 pro, just about a million mining gears, I would be very surprised if we could go beyond that.
Taking the 1/2ing into account would make 2020-2021 15.5T to 42.8T = 176%
In the 1st quarter of 2019, Bitmain had a revenue of >$1 billion. At $2500 a miner, that would be 400,000 miners in a single quarter. So between all the manufacturers, I don't think it is that far-fetched to think we're going to hit another 100% increase.
No we may not ever do a 100% year again as the s17pro set to low hash rate of 39th can do 25 watts a th.
The s19pro has not be proven to do better than 29 watts a th. Yeah I think it can but there may be a flat line limit with efficiency and that makes 100% diff jumps harder to do.
Best I can compare this to is a gasoline engine. A gallon of gas can only do so much work. Eventually it reaches a limit as to how many miles per gallon you can get from 1 gallon.
We did 1gh and 400 watts with gpus
We did 1gh and 15 watts with asic usb sticks.
We did 1 gh and 2 watts with s-1 miner
we did 1th and 1600 watts with 2 s-3 miners
We did 1 th and 1100 watts with 1 s-5 miner
we did 1 th and 250 watts on the s-7
we did 1 th and 80 watts on the s-9
we did 1 th and 60 watts on the s-15
we did 1 th and 25 watts on the s-17pro best settings
we do 1 th 29 watts on the s19 pro so size is better but not wats per th this will slow us up a lot.
We may be reaching the limits for watts per th