I frankly admit that i was wrong in this analysis that the big wick was the market cycle top. Bitcoin has now made another all time high above 49,000$. Perhaps, fundamental events like Elon Musk buying bitcoin news made the technical analysis invalid. No one know what is the market cycle top for this bitcoin cycle now.
You know, you're wrong whether you admit it or not;)
But don't worry, I was fooled too. I was short-term (and probably still am) bearish but every time we get a new ATH like today I'm wondering when the pain will come, or if it will be put off to a farther future.
I doubt Musk is fundamental though. It's good momentum catalyst but you can't be relying on unexpected boosts like that all the time.