Ashwin is having the best time with bat and bowl and will be the player of the match unless England produce some miracle in batting and happens to win the test match from here. England performance might be other way around if they would have won the toss and bat first. Might be India would be under pressure in such situation just like now how England is in pressure of losing it.
England winning at this stage? I doubt it. India have pretty much claimed this one by outperforming England in literally every single department. I have no idea why they decided to replace Anderson whose reverse swing helped a lot.
Also, the toss doesn't always decide the outcome of the match. If that were the case, I would probably earn millions by placing live bets after viewing the toss result. It all comes down to luck and performances at the end of the day.