This is one of the main reasons I base my theory on, so if they can't secure enough chips for 37,000 miners until October, what are the odds that they will be able to get enough chips for 500,000- 1,000,000 miners? even if TMSC pushes its production to the max or beyond its normal production rate, is that going to be enough?

Let's hypnotically imagine that bitmain has to deliver a total of 100,000k miners by October, maybe 37k for riot, 10-20k for individuals orders over their website and some retail and the rest goes to other whales like RIOT, so 100K miners for 10 months is 10K miners a month, they need to increase their production by a factor of 8 to make enough gears to double the current hashrate, is it normal for bitmain to be able to secure enough chips for 10,000*8 = 80,000 miners a month when there is no chip shortage? it's unlikely that chip production has dropped by close to 87% because this is the only way bitmain is going to get 8 times the chips.

In other words:

No chip shortage = 80,000 gears
With chip shoratge = 10,000 gears
Shortage % = -87.5%

Do we really have a -87.5% shortage? I highly doubt it, so maybe the normal supply rate without shortage is just 2-3 times higher than now at best, so instead of 10k miners, they will make 30k miners? that's just about 400k miners per year.