there are many early miners some of them are active today whom you are counting as "nakamotos" and consider lost.

you are probably counting mine and a lot of other bitcoiners coins in this too just because we haven't moved our coins you are calling them "lost"!

most of those addresses that you call "whales" belong to big exchanges and similar companies that are handling thousands of users bitcoins so they aren't whales themselves and they are indeed the very same "ordinary people" who your title mentions.

that is the only thing you can count because they make public claims about how much they own. of course some of these are going into the hands of their "ordinary" investors again but through that company.