Post
Topic
Board Mining (Altcoins)
Re: When to exit
by
philipma1957
on 20/02/2021, 19:15:07 UTC
I will quote this post.

Note the bold section



Just like the subject says, the more Bitcoin goes up this bull run, the most correction it will have, people who thinks this will go up without stopping are very naive.
This is not the time to buy, don't be a fool to buy at 50K.


My death is inevitable.  I was born in 1957 so most likely I will be dead before 2077 as most people don't get to be 120 years old.

What you simply are missing is why are we at 57k

btw your advice means your followers lost out on a 14%  gain 50k to 57k.

To place your bets so to speak on BTC price you need to come up with an upside number.

and of course a down side number. In a time frame.

I pick 2030 as I will be 73 and I won't be looking to invest and mine I would like to travel

in 2030 the Downside number  is $0

in 2030 the Upside number is 500k

It is obvious how I get the downside number.

How do I get the upside number.

I add the value of BTC to the value of gold.

About 1 trillion and 11 trillion is 12 trillion right now.

I figure 100% inflation by 2030 so 24trill would be the combined value of BTC and Gold

if ratio stays the same it is 2 trillion to 22 trillion.  making btc worth 100k

but due to the discovery of much gold on asteroids and the ability to mine it bring gold  closer to a useful more common metal such as iron or lead.

I feel btc has to be at a market cap of 6-11 trillion or 300k to 550k in 2030

Look at the facts below

Musk buys btc
Musk explores space
Musk builds Tesla cars
Nasa to check out a gold filled asteroid in 2022
Lots of gold is on asteroids close by
 
A gold battery lasts 100x long than a lead battery
Ford is fully converting to electric cards in Europe by 2030


So if BTC ends up storing wealth  rather than gold and gold ends up in batteries  instead of lead. your advice is really bad.

Does this mean I will buy 350k worth of btc with all my 'safe' money no.

But 300k stays in safe and 50k stays in  btc.

I come back to this in 2030.

By the way this could  be like leaving horse and buggy for cars.

we now are leaving gas cars for electric cars
and ol/coal/gas heat for electric heat.