Then again, with First-past-the-post, if Trump did split the Republican party, that'd mean a ton of victories for Democrats up and down the ballot.
The way things stand now, a split would mean that McConnel et al leave to create their own party, not the other way round. I doubt they'll do it despite all their rhetoric. Like never-trumpers in 2016, they'll quietly sneak back to kiss Trump's ring.
Even with a split, given polarization and gerrymandering it might not be all victories for Democrats. They might even end up losing some swing seats they recently got if there are two parties to compete against and some independents flip back to supporting whatever moderate Republican offshoot might emerge.
As we get closer and closer to CPAC it seems that Trump will just exert his influence on the GOP instead of making his own party. Though just the threat of him making his own party scares the hell out of Republicans b/c he still commands the support approx 60% of the party.
While Republicans in Washington may be scared of McConnell and his senate influence, individual GOP voters really will go with whatever Trump says on the matter so I highly doubt Trump will lose his grip now.
The ultimate test of if he was going to maintain his control was the Capitol siege, and he was still able to control the Republicans through that so there’s no reason to say he cant continue onwards from here.
Can’t wait to see what this guy says at CPAC. Probably just going to be what he’s wanted to say on Twitter for weeks now.