Your calculation is scary, if you knew all these already why even invest in graphic cards at all? It seems like I made a wrong decision buying graphic cards to mine when ROI may never come, all I need is just 100 days and I'm good
Buying gpus right now at these high prices is as gamble as buying coins right now, know why? as we have the bullrun where people accumulate coins, miners also accumulate gpus, see my point, so miners dont sell gpus, when everything crashes, miners know their gpus will also crash to less than msrp prices, i mean 3080 right now for 1800 usd will crash to sub 500 usd, i'm not joking, this happened in 2018 and it will happen again plus there are many miners which only mine on bullruns and once the bullrun ends they run to sell their gpus as fast as possible, the market will be inflated with cheap gpus just like 2018.
I'm not a miner, yes I purchased 2 evga ftw3 rtx 3080 for 1k each and I'm mining with them but the idea here is to stay with one and to sell the other one. I bought the 3080 with the intention of gaming not mining, not bad mining with it right now.
Also my calculations are a representation of past events based in history, in 2011 with bitcoin then in 2014 with litecoin, in 2018 with eth and now 2021 with eth again. This does not mean it will happen again but it has a great chance to history repeating itself and happening again.
Looks like it is allready began to drop fast or not yet?
Altcoins yes, not sure if this is a beartrap or the end already, need to watch out if btc falls below 32k, if yes then this might be the end, if btc rebounds at 35k or 40k or even 32k then it still has a chance to go to 79k, no clear sign yet.
I hope this won't happen, I just start mining January 2021 with my new graphic cards, I've not even make half ROI back yet, this will break me if bear market starts this soon, I was expecting something around June or July, though I have free electricity since I'm using green energy but I have my targets