Do we really think there are ten of thousands of nodes not accepting connecting being spun up in secret?
This is not "in secret" and the number of nodes not accepting incoming connections can be measured to some extent. You just have to accept incoming connections with a decent internet speed and advertise your IP address (ie. send your addr message). Then you'll see all those nodes show up at your doorstep. Do this long enough with a reliable connection on the same IP and you can count the unique IP addresses.