Yeah, totally overlook the fact that fees will not going to halve but I doubt it will reach those numbers.
If we assume a higher price and double income in BTC for fees this will have to be 4 times bigger on average in $ for a tx since we're still going to have roughly the same amount of transactions a day.  As of right now, we're going surpassing quite daily a minimum fee of 7-8$ for inclusion in the next block that should rise to 30-35$ which might affect the price in a negative way., nobody is going to pay constantly 30$ to move around 500$ and there aren't that many people moving millions.

Of course, the biggest question will be the effect of LN as this will help split the initial cost since you can make hundreds inside the network to cover for the initial fee but I don't think anyone could even approximate how this will impact.
In short, yeah, still my bad, probably that 75% will be something around 50% at best.

So, the next thing that might help keep consumption down.
Let's hope the semiconductors crisis keeps going on for around two years so no new gear will be shipped and we stay flat as we did for almost 3 months.


2018 Numbers, the hash rate was 40Exa, now it's close to 140Exa.
Read the new numbers before telling others how much research they have done.