Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by 600watt (1)
That's why I'm holding to 2025 
Expecting anything disastrous to happen in 2026?
The cycles would suggest 2025 to be better than 2026 - but of course, there are no real guarantees exactly how cycles might fall... and therefore, none of us should be getting too wedded to any exact pattern - even though it still may be reasonable to use as a kind of guide -until and unless something better comes along.
For example, there could be an outrageous peak and then dump in 2025 that would then cause 2026 to play out better than 2025.. Can think about the new pattern as a kind of 2013 double top scenario that drags out into 2026, and surely we are not even limited to previous patterns that still kinds of stick to the overall grander background pattern with more noise in the middle, so, even though the previous BTC price performance cycles have had a certain kind of consistency and patterns to them, there could surely be cases in which the pattern ends up getting messed up on a shorter timeline of 6-18 months, either purposefully or just by the way other related factors (macro or otherwise) play out, but then it may or may not still end up playing out very similarly, once we end up zooming out and looking at the pattern in a broader way (and perhaps after the fact?).
1BTC purchasing power!
There is maybe a bear market in between, so we go back to lambo from the house
Don't you wish, you market-timer wannabe.
You get my drift...
Next halving is in May 2024.
ATH is about 1 year after that. Eta may 2025.
Then a crash to 1/6th of it's price in 2026.
Build up to halving in 2028 and ATH in 2029.
So good vintages are
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
Years in between are shit years...
Even though you might end up being correct about the 4 year cycles, I would be a bit careful about trying to put too much reliance on such patterns playing out as you are expecting, either financially or psychologically.
Regarding your "shit years" assessment, I am having hard times with that too. I did not really consider 2018 to 2020 to be that bad.. and of course, 2014 to 2016, I was still in a more accumulation phase.. so maybe milage is going to vary in terms of there are really feelings about those in between years or any real need to worry.
For example in my case, in about early 2019, I started to consider that I did not really need to worry about whether I sold BTC so long as the price was above $5k, and then I started to think that maybe I should move that price up.. and I started to consider the 208-week moving average to be a good price to consider as a kind of longer term bottom, and so long as the BTC price is above the 208-week moving average, I am getting extra profits for any BTC that I might decide to sell... so currently the 208-week moving average is at about $9,800 which is about twice the price of my earlier psychological preference to make sure that I am selling above $5k.. so maybe so much of the extra BTC price appreciation is just a bunch of icing on the cake and I don't really need to worry.. just cash out some or all BTC at any time, so I am having troubles considering that the bTC price is very likely to ever go below $5k especially since historically it usually does not go below the 208-week moving average, and if it does it might be for a week at most (like it did in March 2020)