using twitter drama and SMA EMA is NOT technical analysis. its deemed as TREND analysis
true technical analysis is studying bitcoins UTXO set of coins moving in the last 2 years (active circulation)
hint(utxo age distribution)
things you can learn:
if mass amounts move suddenly this can be a shift in/out of an exchange. which can indicate the supply in exchanges shifting up and down.
.....
by tallying up the coin amount and the market price at that date of last move. you can aggregate the data to form groups of how much coin last moved between 20k-25k 25k-30k 30k-40k 40k-50k 50k-60k
that way you can put a % sentiment against coins of what people deemed their worth at the last move. to then know what they are not going to dare sell below.
EG if only
2% moved $50k-$60k then 98% moved under $50k so 98% could happily sell down to <$50k and still profit
22% moved $40k-$60k then 78% could happily sell down to $40k and still profit
82% moved $30k-$60k then only 18% would dare sell all the way down to $30k
you can then set a sentiment line of what you think the bottom line which 80% wont go below. which in my example would be $30k
...
looking at the bitcoin richlist of addresses.
the more addresses with balance over 1k. means more people putting funds into an exchanges cold store. this is another indicator of seeing how much supply is going into exchanges
less addresses over 1k coins means the exchanges are doing withdrawals. so less supply on exchanges
..
then you can look at the bitcoin mining cost. and look at the cost of mining at 4cent.
calculate the cost. and set that as a bottomline miners will refuse to sell below.
remember if the price is low but the vost is high. some miners stop mining and instead buy.. as its cheaper and faster to buy at these times.. so a drop in sell pressure and a rise in buy pressure forms another bottomline support.
obviously when the price is high. miners will not be buying but instead mining. and they would be happily selling for profit. thus having a resistance measure. meaning expect prices to go down
once you form the indicators of these base value measures of support. you can then look at the price. and if the price is only 10% above value. then thats good. it means little chance of any further dips.
if the price is 300% above value. then there is alot of non-sustainable value. meaning expect a higher risk of dips/corrections
once you can find a difference between price and bottomline value. you can then see how much speculation(trend drama) is involved in this bubble area between value/price
meaning if its low.. then any news can spike a new high.. if its already highly inflated then more news may not affect it much.
then you can start playing around with trend analysis of moving averages to gamble on the ups and downs