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Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 15/03/2021, 02:20:20 UTC
⭐ Merited by vapourminer (1)
-multisnips-
Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.

you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs.


Thank you. You got me thinking, especially about the loan thingy. I'd be glad to know more about that. Any pointers will be welcome.

Fidelity:
https://www.investopedia.com/fidelity-will-accept-bitcoin-collateral-for-cash-loans-5091879
Basic rate is high, 4.5%, but i am sure this will go down.
I would be shocked if Coinbase would not do the same soon after the IPO.
Personally, i would never go above 20% LTV, maybe just 10% (in case of our typical 80% drawdown).
The advantage-NO cap gains tax. In fact, maybe deductible interest (or not, hard to say)

Borrowing Against securities (better rates right now):
https://www.schwab.com/pledged-asset-line
Libor is 0.11%, so the best rate is 1.86%.
Say, you've got, hypothetically, $10 mil of VOO.
You borrow $ 3mil. Your interest (to pay) is 3000000X0.0186=$55800 yearly
However, $10mil in VOO generates $152000 yearly in dividends. End result-you borrowed $3 mil to do whatever, it effectively cost you nothing (well, a decreased divvy).
Yes, you would have to pay the principal at some point, but you can use divvy remainder to do that plus VOO goes up roughly 10% a year, so the loan basically pays for itself (if stock market performs).
That's why rich can have a cake and eat it too, lol

More:
https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/why-wells-fargo/products-services/lending/securities-based.htm
Yes, best rates are for those with lots of assets.

Ret accounts are NOT eligible, though.

Mind you, I have done nothing of the sorts so far, but I am studying the question (after Saylor's remarks).

Ahh leverage, good idea, as long as markets keep going up 10% every year. How many months would it take to completely loose everything once market starts moving against you? Get triple whammy lose premium, your collateral gets reduced, and you get slammed with a tax bill once you're liquidated. Leverage is no panacea, despite what YOLO generation might say.

Duly noted, hence don't borrow 70%, borrow 10-20%.
The main point is that selling the best asset in the history of earth for rapidly diminishing in buying power fiat is stupid, and I stand by that.

Maybe it makes a difference if you are quasi-desperate because you have not accumulated enough corns.. and so if you have a bitcoin collection that is already substantial, then it may not make a big impact to shave off some corns.


Let's look at some differences between various portfolio sizes in order to try to feel that there are material differences that can cause pretty BIG ass affects upon feelings that will be had depending on the size of the BTC holdings:

# of Corn        CornValue at $60k    price up $3,333 (5.3%) value up by   $ to shave off (3.5% of total profits, / .25% of total Corn value)

10                          $600k                                  $33k                                                             $1,200     

15                          $900k                                  $50k                                                             $1,750

50                          $3mil                                   $167k                                                            $5.83k   

150                        $9mil                                   $500k                                                            $17.5k     

300                        $18mil                                 $1mil                                                             $35k

600                        $36mil                                 $2mil                                                             $70k             

Can you actually notice that even though all of these projections are using similar percentages to shave off for the same price rise of $3,333 (5.3%), the more coins that a person has the less shits that s/he is likely to give about shaving off some value of his/her corns because his/her portfolio is already worth a whole fucking a lot that shaving off is not going to matter - relatively speaking... For example, the value of the 600BTC portfolio of the $36 million portfolio goes up $2million based on a $3,333 BTC price rise, and s/he shaves off $70k but in the whole scheme of things that shaving off of some value does not significantly decrease his/her corn or the overall value of his BTC portfolio in any kind of meaningful way.. the same could be said for the 150BTC and the 300BTC holdings, and probably less so for the 10BTC and 15BTC portfolios where there might be more worries about the overall size of the holdings and if there is enough coins in the portfolio, even though the same percentages are being shaved off for each of them.. but maybe the recommendation for the smaller portfolios would be to either NOT be selling any or to engage in more desperate behaviors, and the larger holdings have way the fuck more options. 

The middle option of 50 BTC might be a bit more torn about whether more coins are needed or whether various more risky strategies might be employed to preserve the corn balance.. and there is going to be variations with different people too in terms of how much they believe that they need to maintain their lifestyle with something like 50 corns and depending on how much they believe that they need, including if they believe that corn price is going up or if they are going to start attempting to live off of corns this cycle or wait one more cycle... and of course individualized factors such as: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak from time to time including whether to reallocate from time to time and/or trade.