I see. You think that current prices are discounting future gains, and as price approaches long-term value, it will necessarily discount less gain.
Yes. ("Future gains discount", took a minute to parse that.)
Risk adjustment means that early prices discount at a larger rate, and probably exponentially, on behavioral grounds.
Agreed. The behavioural grounds being that it is impossible to calculate risks (since "risk" here means "we don't know").
(Risk is funny like that. The last few months has been the worst realistically possible ones for Bitcoin, with China and MtGox, and price hovers around twice the spring bubble of 2013. I would have expected the reaction to be worse.)
The reason I found it offensive was that I was not thinking about instantaneous market price, but about the underlying economic value to which price stochastically converges. The value increases with increasing transaction volume and decreasing velocity, after PQ=MV. PQ should increase and M decrease while V increases as the log, with increasing number of users.
I failed to parse this. Do you mean converges statistically at any single moment, or the longer term convergence?
Also, I'm not sure velocity will decrease. It could very well increase on increasing volume, if the price stabilizes completely.