Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: Dice games
by
Silberman
on 16/03/2021, 04:24:10 UTC
This happens very frequently, another example is the people that use the strategy of martingale, on the surface the strategy seems flawless because the only thing that you need to do is to keep doubling your bet until you recover your money back and it seems to give you very favourable odds to keep winning, and since there are probably millions of people using that strategy they are bound to be some people that have never gone bust with the strategy and they think that this is because of their skill when in fact they just got lucky.
To be honest I must confess I've never thought about that before but what you are saying makes sense, there are certainly some very lucky people that have never lost of their life while using a martingale. Odds to occur must be the same as winning the big prize at the national lottery, so that should be very very few people in the world though.
When you begin to think about it the survivorship bias is almost everywhere for example this is also true in trading, there are hundreds of thousands or even millions of people trading the market of cryptocurrencies and more than 90% lose their money, of the rest that are winners how many of them are actually more skilled than the rest of the traders on the market and how many are in fact just lucky and they do not realize it? A significant number I would guess.