That you’re seeing the third scenario taking place now doesn’t mean that the rest cannot also take place, it all takes time and you see them happening, they all happen, but not all the time. Even now that you think that the third scenario is taking place, you’re forgetting that there are still altcoins that are not following BTC right now.

I guess you only looked at coins like Ethereum and other similar coins and you think that the whole market is moving that way, but that is not true. If you’re making use of Coinbase app you’re going to be able to see coins that are not correlating and you will also see the ones that are correlating with bitcoin.