Which on-chain analytics you use (glassnode for example), which specific parameters you have found to be most useful and most "predictive" when it comes to bull / bear cycles and price tops or bottoms?
I am using combination of different indicators like Bitcoin NUPL or Net Unrealized Profit/Loss NUPL, BTC Stock-to-Flow, MVRV Z-Score and few others, but nothing can exactly predict Bitcoin market top or bottom.
You need to take in account overall economic situation in the world especially in time of pandemic, money printing, potential war rumors and predict most likely scenario that will happen.
There is no risk in holding coins but you need to be ready to suffer the pain and learn not to check your blockfolio every minute, because I think that long term we are going to $100k but road upwards will be bumpy.