This is bubble my friend. Its the formation in which price does not finds supports, especially below bubble formation. Its the formation in which price go parabolic until your taxi driver asks you about bitcoins.
What we saw in 2017 was 5x $4k to $17k,
2019 $3k to $12k 4x
In 2020 $6k to $60k 10x
Nah. In 2017 it was from 750 to 19700 - x26 in 12 months not x5 my friend and whole bubble from bottom to top was x127. Current bubble is x7 in 12 months (not 26) and whole bubble from dip to moon is x20. Se we are nowhere close to 2017 phenomena. We are closer to 2016, where everything was just starting to accelerate.
I see your point, I'm just using coinmarketcap.com right now for reference, but I remember well the $20k top, and the following 90% crash, back then the mod's here were super sensitive you couldn't even mention the 90% crash, they were ostriches with their in the ground
I tried to do averages in my $6k to $60k 2020 rise, if you look at the last major parabolic rise, it didn't end well.
This parabolic rise will also not end well, we have a 25% loss in a week, come the morning in USA there will be more selling,
My question here is what is the bottom this time??
Using your numbers of x127, last parabolic blow out we ended up at 6x, e.g. started at $500, and found last support at $3,000, using same logic of 2020 pre-covid support at $6k, we're not going to find support at $36k
The problem here is BIG-NUMBER's don't play the same as small numbers
Easy to get $500 to $10k, and then find support at $1,000 later
But here you had big INSTITUTION & CORPORATIONS during COVID jump on BTC as a 'in lieu of cash', that is what send our $6000 (march 13,2020) to $61000 ( apr 14,2021), I call that 10x, you call it x7, so whatever
The question, is what is the support level post-crash? What do you see? We can't base it on history and certainly we can't even agree on history, as you choose to think that the past gains were larger, and current smaller.
The 2017 gain was over a year to $500 to $20k ( a 40x gain ), the 2020-2021 covid rally was 3-4 months tops to go $10k to $60k, so the velocity and gain is completely different on the most recent parabolic bubble insanity.
...
So in summary, the question again is what is the final support level?? Will you even take a guess?? My reading the chart is that it seems to take a year on average to find the low consolidation following a bitcoin parabolic bubble blowout.
The past tells us nothing about the future, the little guy suckers holding 0.05 BTC (average hold) HODL'er is not what created our current bubble, the 100's of billions came from corporation and hedge-funds parking their cash in BITCOIN, and now they either pull out or take a terrible loss. HODL THEY CANNOT NOT.