Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Sell in May and Go Away. What do you think?
by
Fortify
on 26/04/2021, 16:47:52 UTC
I just found this when i tried to search more info about bitcoin earlier this day,

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

Quote
What Is "Sell in May and Go Away"?
"Sell in May and go away" is a well-known financial-world adage. It is based on the historical underperformance of some stocks in the "summery" six-month period commencing in May and ending in October, compared to the "wintery" six-month period from November to April. If an investor follows the this strategy, they would divest their equity holdings in May (or at least, the late spring) and invest again in November (or the mid-autumn).


I know that thread is talking about return of stock, not cryptocurrency, then i will show you this (bitcoin return on every month)

From this pic, we can take a conclusion if after May - Oct, bitcoin price seems more likely in "Red" instead of "Green". What do you think? Is this coincidence?


You should be careful trying to draw parallels between stock market sayings and the prices of Bitcoin. Considering there is much less data to go on, it could easily be random chance at this point with a mild correlation. Performance in June looks very similar, with just one more month of barely negative action. Maybe you should revise it to Sell in June. Maybe once you start hitting 20 or 30 years of data it would be possible to get a better feel for price movements and you may even have to exclude the first few years of data because Bitcoin was still outside the mainstream at that point. It does make for interesting viewing though and if you did want to sell some of your cryptocurrency it might be better to do it in the green months.